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Kag Mafia II - A Fool's Venture: Town Victory

Discussion in 'Spamcan' started by Tiruin, Apr 4, 2014.

  1. crap, nvm that then
     
  2. yeah i thought we were playing 4 blue/doc/cop/2 mafia
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 14, 2014, Original Post Date: Apr 14, 2014 ---
    still voting on walter btw, fuck him
     
  3. UnnamedPlayer

    UnnamedPlayer Arsenist Administrator Global Moderator Tester
    1. MOLEing Over Large Estates - [MOLE]

    Messages:
    752
    Jailer can either block no one until one of the mafias is killed and then start blocking his suspects, or he can do a risky move (50% chance of saving someone, 50% chance of ruining a cop report) and block the one he thinks will be targeted by mafia. In general, jailer should not block w/ 2 mafias alive unless he got a strong feeling that said person won't make it to the next morning.
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 14, 2014, Original Post Date: Apr 14, 2014 ---
    True, but this also applies to any way of playing this setup. The difference is that w/ a cop hypo, we still get the reports when cop dies, and we also get to scumhunt based on mafia kills which effectively doubles the amount of reports we get.
    So, according to your logic, with 0 dead townies it would have 100% chance of affecting all the players? Please don't bring retarded math into the table.
     
  4. Sir_Walter

    Sir_Walter Bison Rider Staff Alumni Tester

    Messages:
    273
    I cri :(
     
  5. Apronymous

    Apronymous Shark Slayer

    Messages:
    326
    Without calling, the cop can implicate or support several people per round, then change their minds on previously unknown people once they have more information. With calling the cop can only name one person per round, so efforts to befuddle the search will eat very deeply into efficiency.


    Something can fail to take an unreasonable input, but still be a functional model in reasonable situations. If you can find a model that better represents the idea, I'll mail you a cookie.


    Is this an arbitrary estimate?
     
  6. Superblackcat

    Superblackcat baideist baide Staff Alumni Tester

    Messages:
    462
  7. UnnamedPlayer

    UnnamedPlayer Arsenist Administrator Global Moderator Tester
    1. MOLEing Over Large Estates - [MOLE]

    Messages:
    752
    I'm assuming a jailer hit on the strategy explained above. Another way of putting it would be: the chance of saving the cop and (giving us an extra report) is equal to the chance of ruining a cop report by roleblocking the cop. If there is no cop, a jailer save would mean that the jailer would have a inno (assuming 2 mafs alive) and we would have extra hypo reports to scumhunt based on. So in this case (jailer only) the rewards are slightly higher than the risks, but considering there is only 1/3 chance of it, I still think that jailer should only jail w/ 2 mafs alive if he strongly feels that said person will get killed.

    Alright, lets breakdown the scenario above. Cop 'James' have a fos on player A and B. On N1 he checks player A, see that A is innocent and, instead of targeting A he starts tunneling B. On N2, he checks B, and see that B is also innocent, but he gets killed. Now players look back to James D2, and see that right after he got his first report, he started to attack B. So they assume B is guilty (an idea that mafia members fully support) and B gets lynched. Now you just killed a townie, and you have no clears, reports, or dead mafs and it's either lylo, or maf won already. Good luck w/ that.

    It fails to be a reasonable model regardless of the input. In your model, the chance of a townie being ruled out by maf as not cop decreases over time, when in the actual game it increases every turn. I'm starting to think that you just pulled these numbers our of your ass w/o giving it much thought.

    Please don't waste more words w/ needless discussion. Regardless of your alignment, it would be nice if you could put some more thought into your posts. The feeling I get from your "points" is that you're rather trying to call attention to yourself and participate just for the sake of participating, rather than actually contributing w/ anything. This is a fairly simple setup, even townsided, and there isn't any need to start randomly shitting on d1. Chill a bit, and don't forget to NL.
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 15, 2014, Original Post Date: Apr 15, 2014 ---
    Also, there is a big chance I'll be dead by tomorrow. Please try to carry on the hypo w/o me.
     
  8. Apronymous

    Apronymous Shark Slayer

    Messages:
    326
    I just took a couple minutes to reread the posts from last night and I'm not sure what half the shit I wrote is myself. I shod probably be getting more than two hours sleep a night. ;n;
     
  9. Sir_Walter

    Sir_Walter Bison Rider Staff Alumni Tester

    Messages:
    273
    Ah I forgot, NL
     
  10. NL all the way.
     
  11. Apronymous

    Apronymous Shark Slayer

    Messages:
    326
    Forgot to NL.
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 15, 2014 ---
    Got it now, sorry.
     
  12. so wut we doin
    oh is see NL
     
  13. Nine men of varying profession
    Looked at the clock for its cessation
    The clock struck three
    On the table appeared a key

    The clock struck four
    The inner table became a door
    The clock struck five
    The scenery came alive

    ==+=++=+==​

    Vote standings:

    - Apronymous
    - Hella
    - UnnamedPlayer -
    - Sir_Walter - Ej,
    - Stevedog
    - Superblackcat -
    - norill
    - Vampire -
    - Ej -
    No Lynch: UnnamedPlayer, norill, Superblackcat, Sir_Walter, Stevedog, Apronymous, Vampire

    Not Voting: Hella


    Day 1 has begun and will end at April 18, 2013 [Friday] 9:00 pm [GMT//UTC +8]
    There is One extension left remaining.

    Extension requests: 1
    Shorten requests: 0

    4 votes needed to extend the day
    5 votes needed to shorten the day

    ==+=++=+==​
    Do note: I've not counted the excess requests for extension before I got that last votecount up.
    Also, bold those requests.

    You mean:
    This?
    Because no-one is very different from voting for a no lynch.
     
  14. Hella

    Hella The Nightmare of Hair Global Moderator Donator Tester

    Messages:
    1,655
    Euch. I probably meant NL.
     
  15. does jailing "protect" from (role)cop? i mean, if jailer and (role)cop pick the same person, does it block them from getting knowing their allegiance/role?
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 17, 2014, Original Post Date: Apr 17, 2014 ---
    i did some math and it turns out that its better for us if jailer used his power

    assuming mafia is at least remotely competent we know that they will either both vote to nightkill same person, or maf rolecop will chose 1 townie for inspection and vanilla maf will choose another townie for nighkill. this means there are 392 possible night action combinations: (jailer picks 1 of 8 other players) times ((both mafias vote on 1 of 7 townies) or (maf rolecop inspects 1 of 7 townies, vanilla maf kills 1 of remaining 6 townies)) = 8 * (7 + 6*7) = 392

    lets list all those combinations:
    • 210 - jailer picks vanilla townie, but maf kills some another one (5 vanilla townies * (7 (kill+kill) + 6*7 (inspect+kill)))
    • 42 - jailer blocks vanilla maf, saving a townie (1 vanilla maf * (6*7(inspect+kill)))
    • 42 - jailer blocks rolecop maf, wasting his inspect (1 rolecop maf * (6*7(inspect+kill)))
    • 14 - jailer blocks one maf, but the other had kill anyway (2 mafs * 7 (kill+kill))
    • 30 - jailer saves vanilla townie, mafia inspects someone (5 vanilla townies * 1(failed kill) * 6(inspect))
    • 5 - jailer saves vanilla townie, no maf inspect (5 vanilla townies * 1(failed kill+kill))
    • 6 - jailer saves, but blocks cop, mafia inspects (1 cop * 6(inspect))
    • 1 - jailer saves, but blocks cop, no maf inspect (1 cop * 1(failed kill+kill))
    • 42 - jailer blocks cop, maf kills someone (1 cop * (6 (kill+kill) + 6*6 (inspect+kill))
    as you can see there are 3 times more good outcomes than bad (126 vs 42)
     
  16. Nup~
    Jailing protects from kills-and stops the person being jailed from acting.
    And in that scenario? No. It doesn't block them from getting to know the role or faction alignment.

    What ability you're looking for there is something akin to a Roleblock--which I'll be talking about later, post-game.

    Edit: As a neutral note: Statistics don't make cases by themselves, nor do they win games by themselves...
     
  17. UnnamedPlayer

    UnnamedPlayer Arsenist Administrator Global Moderator Tester
    1. MOLEing Over Large Estates - [MOLE]

    Messages:
    752
    So, if one maf is killing, and the other is RoleChecking, and jailer jails one of them, his action will be blocked right?

    If so, then norill is right and jailer should jail everynight (try not to jail cop tho).

    Thanks to norill for pointing that out, I'm used with another ruleset where mafia cop can kill and check at same time, so I missed this.
     
  18. one of us is so going to die tonight UnnamedPlayer
     
  19. In the scene of a rounded table
    Nine men stood bickering with cantankerous able
    Till one said Not, shall we plot
    No need for today to unravel

    ==+=++=+==​

    Vote standings:

    - Apronymous
    - Hella
    - UnnamedPlayer -
    - Sir_Walter - Ej,
    - Stevedog
    - Superblackcat -
    - norill
    - Vampire -
    - Ej -
    No Lynch: UnnamedPlayer, norill, Superblackcat, Sir_Walter, Stevedog, Apronymous, Vampire, Hella

    Not Voting:


    Day 1 has begun and will end at April 18, 2013 [Friday] 9:00 pm [GMT//UTC +8]
    There is One extension left remaining.

    Extension requests: 1
    Shorten requests: 0

    4 votes needed to extend the day
    5 votes needed to shorten the day

    ==+=++=+==
    Nobody has been lynched.
    The game has entered the night phase. No person may post during the night phase.

    Please submit your actions via PM, if any. The Night will end at the time stated or until all probable actions are sent in.

    The Night will end on April 20, 2014 at 9:00pm
    ===+=++=+===​

    Yes.
    --- Double Post Merged, Apr 20, 2014, Original Post Date: Apr 18, 2014 ---

    Day came up and the night doth wander
    Another man arrived and announced his other
    He spoke in rhyme and rhythm and tone
    Why in the world should these messages be equally drone?

    The man was the japer, the insider, you see
    With him was his own, nobody else added to ye pairs three
    He brings you together and explains your abode
    Nine men gather, speaking once again in code

    ==+=++=+==​

    Vote standings:

    - Apronymous -
    - Hella -
    - UnnamedPlayer -
    - Sir_Walter -
    - Stevedog -
    - Superblackcat -
    - norill -
    - Vampire -
    - Ej -

    Not Voting: Ej, UnnamedPlayer, norill, Superblackcat, Sir_Walter, Stevedog, Apronymous, Vampire, Hella


    Day 2 has begun and will end at April 23, 2013 [Wednesday] 9:00 pm [GMT//UTC +8]

    Extension requests: 0
    Shorten requests: 0

    4 votes needed to extend the day
    5 votes needed to shorten the day
     
  20. UnnamedPlayer

    UnnamedPlayer Arsenist Administrator Global Moderator Tester
    1. MOLEing Over Large Estates - [MOLE]

    Messages:
    752
    HAHAHAHAHA.

    Cop Report: @Apronymous inno

    vote NL